Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.069893 0.080468 0.092459 0.107133 0.124705 0.145191 0.171059
2025-11-09 0.051638 0.063672 0.078509 0.098372 0.124610 0.158570 0.206662
2025-11-16 0.041854 0.054780 0.071939 0.096862 0.132954 0.184641 0.266786
2025-11-23 0.034461 0.047543 0.066097 0.095142 0.141019 0.213539 0.343093
2025-11-30 0.029365 0.042537 0.062414 0.095855 0.153406 0.254011 0.457487
2025-12-07 0.025224 0.038185 0.058887 0.096143 0.165771 0.300265 0.609522
2025-12-14 0.021326 0.033526 0.053992 0.093081 0.171800 0.338695 0.773449
2025-12-21 0.017428 0.028217 0.047029 0.084716 0.165393 0.350373 0.887709
2025-12-28 0.015389 0.025754 0.044637 0.084608 0.176564 0.408367 1.180743
2026-01-04 0.013932 0.024088 0.043413 0.086659 0.193835 0.492724 1.653496
2026-01-11 0.012538 0.022312 0.041647 0.087164 0.208054 0.579481 2.262669
2026-01-18 0.011350 0.020746 0.040022 0.087637 0.222896 0.680781 3.121736
2026-01-25 0.010084 0.018869 0.037476 0.085457 0.230361 0.767574 4.129213
2026-02-01 0.008852 0.016883 0.034352 0.081045 0.229605 0.825921 5.148479
2026-02-08 0.008122 0.015854 0.033221 0.081740 0.246541 0.979409 7.469015
2026-02-15 0.007453 0.014860 0.031996 0.081896 0.262289 1.149608 10.842655
2026-02-22 0.006954 0.014174 0.031401 0.083808 0.286440 1.401699 17.063147
2026-03-01 0.006484 0.013485 0.030675 0.085155 0.309800 1.691714 27.088584
2026-03-08 0.005937 0.012540 0.029119 0.083391 0.319026 1.908382 39.052910
2026-03-15 0.005261 0.011209 0.026326 0.076709 0.301907 1.903536 45.238318
2026-03-22 0.004927 0.010669 0.025610 0.077155 0.320976 2.248750 73.555863
2026-03-29 0.004687 0.010333 0.025406 0.079450 0.352046 2.792796 138.410956
2026-04-05 0.004423 0.009900 0.024851 0.080287 0.376331 3.348877 254.883936